Initial variables of the data collection process:
UN/UN peacekeeping policy reform
No record.
Perception of peacekeeping
Because conflicts in a few African countries and regions is what worries Africa most, "it is necessary that all peace processes already attained on the continent be consolidated," said Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos in 2003, adding that Africa needs to have its own capacity to put in place peacekeeping forces, an issue that was discussed at the summit and will be one of the priorities of the AU (Xinhua 2003, par. 1).
A possible hurdle to Angola’s participation in peacekeeping operations was its "questionable democratic credentials" (IRIN 2006, par.1). Festus Aboagya, head of the peace missions programme at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, said “peacekeeping often occurred in the aftermath of complex emergencies, with humanitarian crises characterized by a lack of respect for human rights and international norms” (Ibid. quoting Aboagya 2006).
"So when you deploy peacekeeping forces they have to be multi-dimensional, they must be able to contribute to post-conflict peace building and reconstruction...you need peacekeepers that come with a culture of peace, democracy, good governance and respect for the rule of law," Aboagya noted. Rights groups continue to warn of alleged abuses by the military in the Cabinda enclave, where separatists have fought a low-intensity struggle for independence. Recently, the army was criticized for its handling of the mass repatriation of Congolese involved in the diamond trade in Angola. (Ibid.)
It is now clear that presidential and parliamentary elections, which had been scheduled for late 2006, will not take place until late 2007 or possibly 2008 (EIU 2006ay, 1). Given the powers of incumbency and its current political domination, it is expected that the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) will win the upcoming legislative poll (Ibid.).
Domestic economic environment
Angola’s on-off relationship with the IMF is set to continue (Ibid.). Negotiations for a new fund monitored program are ongoing, and the government is keen to win the Fund’s blessing for its "home grown" economic program (Ibid.).
Nonetheless, in view of the approaching elections and continuing high oil prices, we expect the government’s commitment to a comprehensive reform program to remain weak. With oil production forecast to rise strongly in the next few years against a background of high oil prices, we expect robust real GDP growth over the forecast period, averaging 10.3% in 2007 and 11.7% in 2008. (Ibid.)
Angola has a large, battle-hardened army and is a regional superpower (Ibid., 2). The Angolan armed forces comprise roughly 110,000 personnel and have strong active capability, including mobile forces and airlift (Ibid.). The air force utilizes attack helicopters, jet fighters and transport aircraft; the latter have facilitated the use of force in neighboring countries (Ibid.).
Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos declared in 2003 that “Angola might participate in peacekeeping forces in the African continent, Angola is getting ready for that purpose and things will naturally depend on specific situations,” in his brief remarks to the press in Maputo, the Mozambican capital, where he participated in the AU’s second summit (Xinhua 2003, par. 1).
The number of the Angolan contingent was not indicated but Opération des Nations Unies en Côte d’Ivoire (ONUCI) would be the country’s first participation in a UN peacekeeping operation (PANA 2004a, par. 2). Composed of 6,240 troops, policemen, civilians, it would supervise the ceasefire in Cote d’Ivoire ahead of general elections in 2005 (Ibid., par. 2). The UN peacekeepers would also help the Abidjan government of national reconciliation to implement the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration program (Ibid.).
Foreign policy
From 1975 to 1991 Angola was aligned with the Soviet bloc and was a proxy in the Cold War (EIU 2006b, 9). After the Cold War, its foreign policy agenda changed “to secure access to multilateral funding and (more importantly for Angola’s leadership) inflows of foreign direct investment, and the main thrust of foreign policy in 2007-08 will be to counter widespread negative perceptions of the government” (EIU 2006ay, 2).
However, the need to make significant concessions has lessened, owing to the government’s success in securing fresh Chinese and other financing, together with continued high oil prices and increased oil output, which substantially improved its financial position. The IMF is thus in a weak position to demand better economic management and greater transparency, although even without a formal IMF program the government is likely to continue to implement some structural reforms. (Ibid.)
Angola’s relations with South Africa have historically been cool, as the two countries have vied as regional powers; nonetheless, fast-growing commercial links are boosting relations, as confirmed by the signing in 2005 of a number of agreements on trade and co-operation. South Africa could be a country that could sponsor Angolan troops. Angola’s powerful new friendship with China is likely to strengthen further, with an estimated 50,000 Chinese workers currently reconstructing Angola’s infrastructure in return for Angolan crude. China’s involvement in peacekeeping is growing, and also its influence in the region, as a result China could also influence Angola to participate. Furthering economic ties with Brazil, India, Israel and Russia will also be important. In recent years, relations with France have been cool as a result of ongoing legal proceedings in Paris over the payment of kickbacks to Angolan and French officials in connection with arms-trafficking more than a decade ago. (Ibid.)
Climate changes
No record.
Independent negotiations taken by DPKO to seek troops
A delegation from the Angolan Ministries for Foreign Affairs, Defence and Interior visited New York in 2004 to hold talks with UN Security Council officials on conditions for deployment of troops to Cote d’Ivoire (PANA 2004b, par. 2). Ambassador Virgilio Marques Faria told journalists that Angola would deploy troops to participate in the UN peacekeeping mission in Cote d’Ivoire only after "exploratory discussions" (Ibid.).
In the end, the Angolan government did not participate in a UN peacekeeping mission to Cote d’Ivoire following claims that Luanda was too close to Ivorian president Laurent Gbagbo (IRIN 2004, par. 1).
Independent negotiations taken by contributor countries to engage non-contributor countriesAngola’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Joao Bernardo de Miranda, announced on Tuesday that his government was going to decline a UN invitation to send peacekeepers, in what would have been Angola’s first UN mission. Angola’s ambassador to South Africa, Isaac Maria dos Anjos, told IRIN that some members of the United Nations had "raised objections to the inclusion of the Angolan troops in the mission - they claimed we are too close to the Cote d’Ivoire government. They [the UN members] claimed that objections had been raised by the opposition in Cote d’Ivoire". "This is not true - Cote d’Ivoire was the base of the UNITA [Angolan rebel group] for many years. We do not want to create problems; we want to make peace, so we decided not to go," he added. (Ibid.)
Matters regarding the ways in which Angola and the United States may cooperate in peacekeeping missions, which will count on the participation of members of the Angolan Armed Forces (FAA), topped the official meeting between the delegations of both countries in 2004 (Xinhua 2004, par. 1).
Angola, recently emerged from decades of civil war, is now turning its attention to playing a larger peace and security role in Africa (IRIN 2006, par.1).The two-hour meeting was held in close-doors at the Angolan National Defence Ministry, in Luanda. The Angolan part was headed by the Chief of General Staff of FAA, Gen. Agostinho Nelumba Sanjar, and the US side was led by the deputy under-secretary of the Defence Department for African Affairs, Teresa Whelan, who is in Luanda since Friday on a working visit. Speaking to the press at the end of the meeting, Whelan, who considered the meeting very fruitful, said that the Angolan and US armies might cooperate positively in peacekeeping missions. (Ibid., par. 2-4)
Meetings organized by other international organizations to engage in dialogue about peacekeepingThe country may see its ambitions boosted by assistance from former colonizer Portugal, which has indicated a willingness to help Angola establish a peacekeeping capacity within its large and relatively well-equipped armed forces. According to the Portuguese news agency LUSA, Portuguese Defence Minister Luis Amado said Lisbon was keen to offer assistance to the Angolan military, with which it has an existing training program. Amado began a two day visit to Angola on Monday. Festus Aboagya, head of the peace missions program at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, told IRIN that Angola’s willingness to be involved in peacekeeping missions was crucial to the country’s regional and continental ambitions. "It is a contestant to regional leadership in Southern Africa, by extension you can say it would want to position itself favorably within Africa as a key player in Africa’s efforts to maintain and restore peace and security," he said. Although the Angolan army lacked a peacekeeping background, it was "never too late for any member state to make a contribution in that regard [particularly] as Africa is in search of many more peacekeeping contributor states", Aboagya added. (Ibid., par.2)
The president of Mozambique, Joaquim Chissano, stated that the Maputo gathering of at least 35 African leaders "has gone on well as the fundamental issues have been discussed" (Xinhua 2003, par. 1). The discussions "have been easy" because the summit’s preparations were good, he said (Ibid).
